The Passionate Attachment

America's entanglement with Israel

Arab Spring chaos spreads to Turkey

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In his “A Strategy for Israel in the 1980s,” Oded Yinon wrote:

Lebanon’s total dissolution into five provinces serves as a precendent for the entire Arab world including Egypt, Syria, Iraq and the Arabian peninsula and is already following that track. The dissolution of Syria and Iraq later on into ethnically or religiously unqiue areas such as in Lebanon, is Israel’s primary target on the Eastern front in the long run, while the dissolution of the military power of those states serves as the primary short term target. Syria will fall apart, in accordance with its ethnic and religious structure, into several states such as in present day Lebanon, so that there will be a Shi’ite Alawi state along its coast, a Sunni state in the Aleppo area, another Sunni state in Damascus hostile to its northern neighbor, and the Druzes who will set up a state, maybe even in our Golan, and certainly in the Hauran and in northern Jordan. This state of affairs will be the guarantee for peace and security in the area in the long run, and that aim is already within our reach today.

With Syria’s delicate demographic balance increasingly fragmented by the anti-regime protests, the “Arab Spring” appears to be fulfilling the expectations of Israeli strategists like Oded Yinon. Today, the Independent reports:

There is growing concern that the religious tensions sparked by the Syrian uprising will be imported into this part of Turkey which has a delicate demographic balance between Sunnis, Alevis and Christians.

This news would come as no surprise to Oded Yinon, who wrote:

Alongside the Arabs, split as they are, the other Moslem states share a similar predicament. Half of Iran’s population is comprised of a Persian speaking group and the other half of an ethnically Turkish group. Turkey’s population comprises a Turkish Sunni Moslem majority, some 50%, and two large minorities, 12 million Shi’ite Alawis and 6 million Sunni Kurds.

And as Yinon predicted:

This national ethnic minority picture extending from Morocco to India and from Somalia to Turkey points to the absence of stability and a rapid degeneration in the entire region. When this picture is added to the economic one, we see how the entire region is built like a house of cards, unable to withstand its severe problems.


Written by Maidhc Ó Cathail

June 15, 2011 at 8:23 am

Posted in Uncategorized

One Response

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  1. What the Arab revolts leave unanswered
    By Rami G. Khouri

    […]If some Arabs decide they are uncomfortable with their existing state boundaries and they wish to break away and form a separate country, that should always be an option.[…]

    […]We should be prepared to deal with the specter of existing Arab countries that reconfigure their frontiers and populations while they are reconfiguring their political governance systems.[…]

    Rami G. Khouri is in the Advisory Council of Brookings Doha Center.


    June 26, 2011 at 8:45 pm

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